Climate forecasting and trigger models
The implementation of effective disaster preparedness, early warning systems, and anticipatory action (AA) policies relies on a good understanding of climate hazards and the availability of reliable climate and weather data.
This first course will therefore introduce you to seasonal climate and weather forecasting and related concepts that underpin the development and use of AA trigger models for climate-related hazards.
Learning objectives
By the end of the course, you will be able to:
- Better understand the nature and drivers of climate-related hazards
- Understand weather and seasonal climate forecasts and measures of their accuracy and skill
- Understand the use of different observation and forecast sources
- Assess constraints of the forecasting process and observations on AA decision-making
- Recognise other non-climate related factors within the superposition of vulnerability, hazard and exposure that affect risk of climate impact in general and trigger development in particular
- Engage in the process of development and operationalisation of trigger models for AA of climate hazards